DEL PERRO (WZL) — With every election reason, we run PolitiPoll as soon as the candidates are announced, and then we follow up as we get closer to the election. This gives us the best idea of what policies are important to you and who you and your fellow citizens want in office.
As we have learned, Governor Tod (Ind.) will not be seeking re-election leaving the governor seat to a first-term candidate. The closest we have to an incumbent is Karmen McKenzie (SALP), who has been the Lieutenant Governor for one and a half terms after being appointed back in the Paxton Administration and elected alongside Governor Tod.
Overall, we are seeing a very split voting base, with 43% preferring Lt. Governor McKenzie (SALP) as their next governor and 36.1% preferring Daniel “Dan” White (Ind.) as their next governor, while 20.8% prefer Alice Medlin (Ind.) as their first candidate. A majority is needed to elect the governor, so if the election was to follow our polling results, ranked choice votes would kick in to decide the winner.
Top Two Preferences
In a three person race, it is difficult to compare preferences and determine election outcomes. However, if a mock election was done using these polling numbers, Alice Medlin (Ind.) would be eliminated from contention and second preferences considered for their voters; this would come down to less than 2% difference with Karmen McKenzie (SALP) barely claiming victory with 50.7% of the vote and Dan White (Ind.) receiving the remainder, 49.3%.
The legislature is changing as it loses its longest-serving member Endeavour Jackson (Ind.), who has been elected in every election since mid-2021. Hudson Welsh (SALP) is also not contesting his seat, leaving at least two seats open to newcomers. The remaining seats are held by Progress Party veteran Becks Lawson (P), as well as junior members Audrey Storm (P) and Jordan Malone. (P)
Based on first preference popularity, James Paxton (NAPP) would immediately be elected with 26.4% of first preferences in this poll. Next would be Audrey Storm (P) with 22.2% and Jordan Malone (P) with 16.7%. Following that is Becks Lawson (P), the Progress Party leader with 9.7% and then Jericho Delmonta (SALP) with 8.3%. The remaining candidates in order would be Ryyan Avery (SALP), Mina Teller (SALP), Isaiah Miller (Ind.) and then Caster Taylor (Ind.).
Top Five Preferences
In our polling, we ask for voters to preference their top five candidates in order to see what the public wants in their legislature. The results show slightly different overall preferences compared to the first choice votes.
- James Paxton (NAPP) 15.8%
- Becks Lawson (P) 15%
- Audrey Storm (P) 14.7%
- Jordan Malone (P) 12.8%
- Jericho Delmonta (SALP) 12.2%
- Ryyan Avery (SALP) 11.9%
- Mina Teller (SALP) 6.4%
- Isaiah Miller (Ind.) 5.8%
- Caster Taylor(Ind.) 5.3%
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